http://www.yummyapple.com/03-11-2008.htmlLet's first review what happened on Monday.
The Norway underline CPI y/y came out at 2.2% versus 1.9% expected, and m/m 1.0% versus 0.6% expected. The headline numbers came out as expected. We got a good sell signal and the market moved by about 500 pips although it was tough to make any money on the afterspike.
At 5:30 a.m. EST we had UK PPI and Industrial Production. The Industrial Production came out too close to expectations to enter any trade so officially it was a no trade. The price action was very confusing so it was better to stay out.
At 8.01 p.m. EST we had UK RICS House Price Balance. The number came out pretty well; however, I had recommended not trading it and it was a good idea to stay out. Nothing interesting here at all.
Let's now talk about tomorrow.
1. Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 4:30 a.m. we will have Swedish CPI coming out. It is a very similar situation to yesterday's Norway CPI - your primary focus should be on the underline inflation. The underline y/y inflation is expected to come out at 3.3%, and the m/m is expected to come out at 0.5%. The headline number y/y is expected to come out at 3.2% and the m/m at 0.6%. If the CPI underline y/y comes out at 2.5% or higher, I would sell USD/SEK or EUR/SEK. If it comes out at 1.9% or lower, I would buy USD/SEK or EUR/SEK. I would prefer to trade EUR/SEK but if you don't have it, then try to trade USD/SEK. If the trigger is hit, I would expect about 400 pips move on this. If you are not able to trade this report with your broker, don't worry - we have so many other good reports every single month.
2. Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 (6:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 6:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW coming out. I will skip this one as it was not tradable recently. Last month with a good deviation the price moved only by 12 pips.
3. Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. and Canadian trade balance coming out. As of right now, the Canadian Trade Balance is expected to come out at 2.6 B. I would use 1.0 trigger on this. If it comes out at 3.6 B or higher, I would sell USD/CAD. If it comes out at 1.6 B or lower, I would buy USD/CAD. U.S. Trade Balance is expected to come out at -59.5 B. I don't think the U.S. indicator is tradable so I would just focus on the Canadian trade balance; however, watch out for the U.S. indicator and avoid any big conflicts here.
That's all for tomorrow.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot