http://www.yummyapple.com/03-19-2008.html

Let's first talk about Tuesday.

First, we had UK CPI. The y/y came out flat and the core number came out lower. We had 0.2 deviation on core CPI but we were looking for such deviation on y/y headline. The GBP/USD moved down but retraced completely so it was good we were not in this trade.

Then we had Canadian CPI, and we were focused on the core number. We got a sell signal on USD/CAD, and although the price went the right way right on the beginning, overall we got a full retracement on this. If you entered with the SNW, you probably were able to grab some pips. Otherwise, it was hard to make anything.

Then we had FOMC meeting. They cut the rates by 75 bp which was a no trade trigger. The situation changed a little right before the report where more people were expecting a cut of 1% so a cut of .75% was quite disappointing. Nevertheless, it was a no trade based on my signal from yesterday although we made a good money on the Diamonds room. Watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Thursday, March 19th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 we will have U.K. Average Earnings and BOE Minutes. I will not be focusing on the Average Earnings at all, and I will stay focused on the BOE Minutes. It is expected the vote will be 8:1 in favor of no cut decision. Chances are at least one member voted for a cut. If the vote was 9:0 for no cut, I think it would be strengthening for the pound, and assuming there is no conflict from the average earnings, it would be a buy signal on GBP/USD, and if the commentary is supporting, you can expect 40 to 50 pips move. 6:3 or 5:4 vote would give a sell signal on GBP/USD, and I would also expect 40 to 50 pips move on GBP/USD. If the average earnings deviates by 0.2 against the BOE Minutes vote, I would stay away. Watch out for comments as they will influence the move a lot.

That's all for tomorrow.


Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot