http://www.yummyapple.com/03-25-2008.html

Last Thursday we had UK Retail Sales m/m. It was expected to come out at -0.2% and with the deviation of 1.2 it was a BIG buy signal on GBP/USD (the y/y deviated even more). The GBP/USD moved up about by 87 pips very quickly but then it retraced below the prerelease price, and then it moved up even more. The dollar was strengthening to the Euro at that time and this might be a reason why the retracement was so huge on GBP/USD. GBP/JPY worked better - it moved by 100 pips, then retraced about 50%, and then it moved even higher. The best pair to trade happened to be GBP/CHF - the initial move was 115 pips and it kept pushing to new highs eventually reaching 200 pips target.

On Friday we did not have anything tradable. Then we had Easter so nothing to trade on Sunday. On Monday we had U.S. Existing Home Sales but I don't recommend to trade it, especially during holidays.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales (headline) m/m. Some people focus on the core number but I prefer to focus on the headline number. However, in order to trade safe, it is good to have the two numbers complementing each other. If there is a conflict, I would stay out completely. It is expected to come out at 1.4% on m/m. I would use 0.6 trigger on the m/m headline. If it comes out at 2.0% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD, and I would expect 40 pips of price action (or more). If it comes out at 0.8% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips of price action. If it deviates by 1.5, you would probably see 70 pips move - assuming that the core number is not conflicting.

2. Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Home Price Index Composite 20 y/y. I would not worry about this one.

3. Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Confidence but it did not move the market well last few times so I would also forget about this. Keep an eye on it as you never know what may happen, especially if you are in a trade already.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot